(From Patreon on a 2-day delay)
Some of you will still see some winter weather as early as early Saturday morning, with areas of snow still possible Sunday. Things have trended warmer for the weekend, but the cold air is still on the way by late in the day Sunday with especially frigid air Monday.
I mentioned this week how the core of these Arctic air outbreaks usually trend just a little further north with time as they get closer. If you like snow, you want that trend because if the core of the cold sits overhead Mon-Tue, it would knock Wednesday’s snow well to our south and east as the GFS and EURO have been showing this week.
I noticed the Canadian keeps us snowy Tuesday night into Wednesday but is also much warmer Sunday, holding snow back into the Highlands and Greenbrier Valley and SW VA mountains.
What I’m saying is while we need the cold obviously, we don’t want the northern branch o the jet stream TOO strong into next week, but just strong enough. That’s because on the main image above, notice the subtropical branch of the jet and the clouds across Mexico.
That southern branch needs to stay closer to the coast for a good snow here and today the GFS and EURO are TRENDING WEST again, which is what I expected .
Here’s the setup for Saturday morning: a slug of moisture moves in before sunrise and takes several hours to move through. Since temps at 5,000 are right above freezing, cold rain is expected, but any enhanced moisture may cool the air just enough for wet snow, mainly in the western mountains. Some wet snow will fall with the rain elsewhere.
Here’s the Weather Prediction Center forecast for 8 a.m. SAT
I’m using the RAP model for Saturday – which will go from winter in the morning to spring for the afternoon thanks to clearing behind the morning mix.
The push of moisture showing snow in the Highlands and rain elsewhere.
Then we clear out!
In fact a warm southwesterly wind combined with sunshine may allow temps to soar to around 50 or higher in spots for highs Saturday AFTERNOON.
Because of that clearing and warming Saturday afternoon, the super cold air that was slated for Sunday during the day gets pushed back to Sunday evening and overnight.
Low pressure will still ride north through the area, but track further west which again holds snow west initially, with areas of snow forming east of the mountains for SOME into the mid afternoon.
The EURO shows the rain to snow transition..Sun 1 p.m.
GFS Sunday 1 p.m.
Canadian Sunday again is warmest. That’s why it’s the snowiest Wednesday. We sacrifice Sunday for a better snow Wednesday, basically.
SREF snow average through Sunday…. looks reasonable.
And the National Blend of Models through Sunday – also looks reasonable to me .
TRENDS ARE YOUR FRIEND!
Not much change in my thinking for next week. The time to watch is Tuesday night and Wednesday as of this writing. Keep in mind, we are still going to see more changes in the forecast this far out, but I’m pleased with the model trends today, coming in line with the snowy Canadian model that’s been most consistent so far for Wed.
Here’s the Canadian for Wednesday morning from Friday’s 12Z run.
You may notice I didn’t post the GFS or EURO yesterday bc I just didn’t believe them.
To prove my point, look at the trends.
On the left is last night’s run of each model – showing the out to sea scenario for us. On the right is today’s 12Z runs from each model. Everything is trending west and I think it will continue to this weekend.
The German ICON model trend with yesterday’s run on the left and today’s on the right. This is for Wednesday morning.
Same but with the GFS
and the EURO also undergoing the exact same trend. Imagine that!
People have been asking if I think it’ll snow next week.
Yes. I think it will snow enough for accumulations by Wednesday morning. Just a question of how much.